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1. We can never be 100% certain. The only things we can be 100% certain about are the things that already happen.

2. The higher you make your certainty, the more padding your forecasts will have for many items because it is accounting for more less likely possibilities. So, if you go too high you might as well just look at how long it took to do the longest-running item as use that as a forecast for any given epic.

Next Step

Now you’re reading to use your forecast!