Once you’ve added your historical data and found the epics or versions to forecast against, now you need to configure the forecast parameters. This document covers the following information to help:
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Parameter Box Views
The parameters that are available to set depend on if you have toggled on the ability to see epics or versions that haven’t yet started.
Show not started toggled off
Show not started toggled on
Forecast Parameters
Confidence level
A forecast certainty is a reflection of your ability to absorb risk in your forecast. The Monte Carlo Simulations that we use to forecast run thousands of simulated trials using the data you configured in the Portfolio Forecaster.
This allows us to see all possible completion dates and how often each completion date happened. This allows us to make a probabilistic forecast containing a probability (85%) and a range (by the forecasted date or earlier).
A probabilistic forecast: There is an 85% chance that Item X will finish on or before Y date.
This means there’s a 15% chance it won’t. You adjust the forecast certainty according to the risk you’re willing to take.
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Concurrent items
This is a parameter that lets you ask and answer the question “What if we were to work on a different number of items at one time?”
Use the dropdown to adjust how many items the simulation will treat as in progress. Generally speaking, the more epics or versions you’re working on at one time, the longer it takes to finish any one item. This has a cascading effect on future items.
Once you change your selection you’ll need to click “Save” in order for the changes to take effect. This will cause the simulation to be recalculated.
What other “What If?” questions might I answer with Portfolio Forecaster?
Show not started
This toggle not only provides additional parameters that make sense when you’re forecasting for work not yet started, but it also changes which epics or versions you see in the forecast table. When it is toggled off, you only see items in progress according to Jira. If you have the toggle on, you see all items that have remaining work.
Advanced > Work ahead
This advanced parameter lets you tell the simulation to spend a certain percentage of your daily effort (Throughput) on items not yet in progress.
Next Step
Now you’re reading to use your forecast!