Once you’ve added your historical data and found the epics or versions to forecast against - you can run simulations. The forecaster has 2 modes - actual or simulation.
Actual mode
Actual mode will use the current number of epics or versions currently in a status of In Progress.
For Epics this is determined by the Epic’s workflow status. If it’s in status , now you need to configure the forecast parameters. This document covers the following information to help:
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Parameter Box Views
The parameters that are available to set depend on if you have toggled on the ability to see epics or versions that haven’t yet started.
Epics in a workflow state that has a status category of In Progress - then it’s deemed as in progress. For Versions this is determined by a a version configured start date. If it’s before the current date and the version hasn’t been released yet, then the version is viewed as being in progress.
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When you are in actual mode, the Forecast parameters are limited to the certainty parameter. The concurrent throughput used is set to be the number of epics or versions “In Progress”.
The epics or versions that are “In Progress” are grouped at the top of the table and cannot be reordered. The forecast assumes that you’re working on all of them starting today and once they’re finished - you will continue to move onto the Epics or Versions not yet started. The Epics of Versions not yet started are rearrangeable (for more information - see below).
Simulation mode
Once you enter simulation mode you can configure the throughput yourself and all of the epics and versions that are being forecasted are viewed the same and can be rearranged.
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Once you change the Epics in Progress or Versions in Progress 'In Progress' are shown with an
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Show not started toggled off
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Show not started toggled on
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Forecast Parameters
Confidence level
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A forecast certainty is a reflection of your ability to absorb risk in your forecast. The Monte Carlo Simulations that we use to forecast run thousands of simulated trials using the data you configured in the Portfolio Forecaster.
This allows us to see all possible completion dates and how often each completion date happened. This allows us to make a probabilistic forecast containing a probability (85%) and a range (by the forecasted date or earlier).
A probabilistic forecast: There is an 85% chance that Item X will finish on or before Y date.
This means there’s a 15% chance it won’t. You adjust the forecast certainty according to the risk you’re willing to take.
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Please note
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Concurrent items
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This is a parameter that lets you ask and answer the question “What if we were to work on a different number of items at one time?”
Use the dropdown to adjust how many items the simulation will treat as in progress. Generally speaking, the more epics or versions you’re working on at one time, the longer it takes to finish any one item. This has a cascading effect on future items.
Once you change your selection you’ll need to click “Save” in order for the changes to take effect. This will cause the simulation to be rerun.
Rearranging the epics or versions
To rearrange the epics or versions order to be forecasted - simple drag the row to the new location. Once you have rearranged all of the epics or versions in order of importance - click on recalculate in the bar that is shown.
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recalculated.
What other “What If?” questions might I answer with Portfolio Forecaster?
Show not started
This toggle not only provides additional parameters that make sense when you’re forecasting for work not yet started, but it also changes which epics or versions you see in the forecast table. When it is toggled off, you only see items in progress according to Jira. If you have the toggle on, you see all items that have remaining work.
Advanced > Work ahead
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This advanced parameter lets you tell the simulation to spend a certain percentage of your daily effort (Throughput) on items not yet in progress.
Ready to forecast?
Press Start the calculations button
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Next Step
Now you’re reading to use your forecast!