v1.0 - Set forecast parameters
- Julia Wester
Once you’ve added your historical data and found the epics or versions to forecast against, now you need to configure the forecast parameters. This document covers the following information to help:
Parameter Box Views
The parameters that are available to set depend on if you have toggled on the ability to see epics or versions that haven’t yet started.
Epics in a workflow state that has a status category of 'In Progress' are shown with an In Progress lozenge and will appear when you have the Show not started setting toggled off.
Show not started toggled off
Show not started toggled on
Epics not showing as In Progress?
In your Jira workflow, each workflow status is assigned a status category: ‘To Do', ‘In Progress' or ‘Done'. For every Epic we check it’s current workflow status and its status category to determine if the Epic is not yet started, in progress, or completed. If you want Epics to appear as In Progress, make sure you have transitioned them to an In Progress workflow status.
We don’t assume that just because an issue in the Epic is In Progress, that you want to consider the entire Epic as In Progress as there are some use cases where that wouldn’t be accurate. We prefer to have you be explicit about this.
Want your Epics to automatically move to an In Progress workflow status when you start an issue inside your Epic? Jira has automation features that make this possible.
Forecast Parameters
Confidence level
A forecast certainty is a reflection of your ability to absorb risk in your forecast. The Monte Carlo Simulations that we use to forecast run thousands of simulated trials using the data you configured in the Portfolio Forecaster.
This allows us to see all possible completion dates and how often each completion date happened. This allows us to make a probabilistic forecast containing a probability (85%) and a range (by the forecasted date or earlier).
A probabilistic forecast: There is an 85% chance that Item X will finish on or before Y date.
This means there’s a 15% chance it won’t. You adjust the forecast certainty according to the risk you’re willing to take.
Please note
You can never be 100% certain. The only things you can be 100% certain about are the things that have already happened.
The higher you make your certainty, the more padding your forecasts will have for many items because it is accounting for more less likely possibilities. So, if you go too high you might as well just look at how long it took to do the longest-running item as use that as a forecast for any given epic.
Concurrent items
This is a parameter that lets you ask and answer the question “What if we were to work on a different number of items at one time?”
Use the dropdown to adjust how many items the simulation will treat as in progress. Generally speaking, the more epics or versions you’re working on at one time, the longer it takes to finish any one item. This has a cascading effect on future items.
Once you change your selection you’ll need to click “Save” in order for the changes to take effect. This will cause the simulation to be recalculated.
Show not started
This toggle not only provides additional parameters that make sense when you’re forecasting for work not yet started, but it also changes which epics or versions you see in the forecast table. When it is toggled off, you only see items in progress according to Jira. If you have the toggle on, you see all items that have remaining work.
Advanced > Work ahead
This advanced parameter lets you tell the simulation to spend a certain percentage of your daily effort (Throughput) on items not yet in progress.
Ready to forecast?
Press Start the calculations button
Next Step
Now you’re reading to use your forecast!